8 July 2015 - A more detailed view of how England and Wales climate is expected to change out to 2100 has been revealed in new research from the Met Office.
- The chances of a colder than average winter (according to 1961-90 long-term averages) are about 20% by 2020, but they drop to 4% by 2100.
- The chance of the very cold winter temperature seen in 2009/10 was about 6%, but by 2100 the chance drops to less than 1%.
- For the next 20 years there is still a 35-40% chance of getting a wetter than average summer. The chance drops to about 20% by 2100.
- The chances of a very wet summer (defined as 20% more rain than the 1961-90 average) are expected to fall from 18% in 2020 to 10% by 2100.
- The chances of a summer considered very hot historically (happening once every 20 years) rises to 90% (i.e. happening much more often than not) by 2100.