Neste blog são divulgados tópicos relacionados às questões de clima e ambiente, de interesse científico, tecnológico, educacional ou social.
(In this blog we deal with some topics concerning climate and environment, with focus on scientific, technological, educational or social issues).
sexta-feira, 23 de maio de 2014
Tying air pollution to climate scenarios
The drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions associated with
the most optimistic climate scenarios would also lead to major
reductions in air pollution, according to a new study from IIASA published today in the journal Nature Climate Change.
But under more pessimistic climate scenarios, the study finds, the
range of possibilities for air pollution is much more uncertain, and
depends far more on air quality policies.
A growing body
of research from researchers at IIASA and other institutions shows that
policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will have a positive
effect, or co-benefits, for simultaneously reducing air pollution.
Greenhouse gases and air pollutants come from many of the same sources.
Coal power plants, for example, emit not only carbon dioxide,
but also black carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen compounds that dirty the
air and lead to lung and heart disease. So cutting fossil fuel burning
would cut emissions of these air pollutants, as well as the greenhouse
gases that contribute to climate change.
Before the new
study, these co-benefits had not been assessed in connection to the new
framework of scenarios that underlie the most recent IPCC report, the
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
span the range of possibilities between a future without mitigation of
greenhouse gases to a future with ambitious climate policy,” explains
Joeri Rogelj, a researcher at IIASA and ETH Zurich, who led the study.
He says, “They were developed as benchmark scenarios, to be used by
climate modelling groups, to facilitate a more straightforward
comparison of climate model results that are somehow connected with how
our world and society might evolve in the future.”
says, “While the RCPs were developed to represent large variations in
the total climate forcing, their focus was not on air pollution. It was
also unclear to many researchers in the climate research community how
much an effort the reductions in air-pollution emissions in the RCPs
represented beyond the implementation of current policies.”
Energy Program Director Keywan Riahi, a study co-author, says, “Our
study helps the scientific community not only to better understand
co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures, but also the
associated uncertainty of possible air pollution pathways consistent
with the RCPs.”
study relied on an integrated assessment framework that combined two
IIASA models – the energy system model MESSAGE and the air pollution
model, GAINS, and draws on work from the IIASA Energy program and the
Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases programs.
J, Rao S, McCollum DL, Pachauri S, Klimont Z, Krey V, and Riahi K.
(2014). Air-pollution emission ranges consistent with the representative
concentration pathways. Nature Climate Change.DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2178